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TdF Rest day: July 17, 2006After two weeks of the Tour de France 2006, it remains unclear who will win the race. Currently Oscar Pereiro Sio has the yellow jersey but Floyd Landis, Denis Menchov and Cadel Evans are mentioned most often as the major candidates for winning the race. The next three tough stages in the Alps will probably sort out the overall rankings. Otherwise the Tour will be decided in the final individual time trial on Saturday.
DropoutsAfter fifteen stages 20 riders have left the race. Another 13, among which Jan Ullrich and Ivan Basso, were removed from the starting list by their team one day before the race began. This brings the total amount of missing cyclists to 33. This is less than the average number of dropouts in the twelve earlier editions of the game (40) but quite similar to the recent two editions (31 and 29). The maximum number of riders to have abandoned at this stage of the race was 62 in 1996 and the minimum 26 in 1999. The dropouts have caused problems for the participants in the game. Only 17 of the 647 participants (3%) has a complete team. The highest ranked of this group is Dan Foss (USA) at 93rd place. 204 teams, among which the one of current leader Bevo Gallagher (USA), miss only one rider. The largest loss, 4 riders, was suffered by 22 participants. Five participants share the fate of having the smallest team in the game: 9 cyclists. None of them started the game with a complete team.
Popular cyclistsAt the previous rest day we have compared the performance of the robot participant Jan Modaal, composed from the list of most favorite cyclists in the game, with teams that contained the most popular cyclists of the countries that provided 10 or more participants to the game. After stage 8, the average teams did less well than expected: only one of them (Team The Netherlands) would have been ranked among the best 10% of the participants in the game. Here are the overall rankings of the country teams after stage 14:
Plc Per Pnt Name 53. 91% 574 Team The Netherlands 89. 86% 547 Team Belgium 140. 78% 513 Team Norway 161. 74% 500 Team Germany 163. 74% 499 Jan Modaal (United Nations) 170. 73% 496 Team France 201. 68% 483 Team UK 213. 67% 480 Team Australia 240. 62% 471 Team Sweden 242. 62% 470 Team New Zealand 285. 55% 453 Team Canada 295. 54% 449 Team USA This list contains the projected place of the team in the overall rankings, the percentage of participants it would have beaten, its score and its name. Not much has changed since the previous rest day. Team Germany, Team Australia and Team Canada have improved a bit. Team France has moved down a few places. Team The Netherlands remains the only country team that performs better than 90% of the field.
Alternative rankingsSince 1999, we have used the rest days to look at several alternative rankings. We examine the current overall rankings for the four main jerseys: yellow (overall time), green (sprinter points), polka dot (mountain points) and white (best young rider). If we interpret the top ten positions of these rankings as a stage result (see CyclingNews.com), we get the following top tens of participants:
Top ten yellow jersey rankings after stage 14
1. 69 Tore Högman (Sweden)
2. 59 Jacqueline Blom (The Netherlands)
59 Ole Olesen (Norway)
4. 57 Jan Buiten (The Netherlands)
57 O. Vergeer (The Netherlands)
6. 56 Jason Bartram (Australia)
56 Olle Olausson (Sweden)
56 Rick Goatman (Australia)
9. 54 Y. T. (Poland)
10. 49 Jan Gofilex (The Netherlands)
Top ten green jersey rankings after stage 14
1. 99 Dimitri van Agterveld (The Netherlands)
2. 98 Arjen Pijfers (The Netherlands)
3. 95 Bastin Verweij (The Netherlands)
95 Bevo Gallagher (USA)
5. 94 Jolanda Prins (The Netherlands)
6. 93 Nathalie Mulder (The Netherlands)
7. 92 Brigitte Touw (The Netherlands)
8. 91 Amaryllis Frieser (The Netherlands)
91 Annie Sikkes (The Netherlands)
91 Karolina Tobiasson (Sweden)
Top ten polka dot jersey rankings after stage 14
1. 29 Danielle Sheerin (UK)
2. 28 Ben Russell (UK)
28 Cynthia Garner (USA)
28 Erik TKS (The Netherlands)
5. 27 Sola Takahashi (USA)
6. 26 Gregory Tullock (USA)
26 Guido Lindeman (The Netherlands)
26 Kira Cornelison (USA)
26 M. Sullivan (Canada)
26 Paul Puppyn (New Zealand)
26 Rick Goatman (Australia)
26 Sophie Weinstein (USA)
26 Spenser Saling (USA)
26 Vince Davis (USA)
Top ten white jersey rankings after stage 14
1. 23 Hamste Panthers (Sweden)
2. 17 Guido Van Hal (Belgium)
3. 13 Brian Gregg (USA)
13 Jeroen Wouda (The Netherlands)
13 Jock McKenzie (UK/Scotland)
13 Kim Johnstone (New Zealand)
7. 12 Alexander Martin (The Netherlands)
12 Mardie Parrot (Germany)
12 Roberto Sabadini (Italy)
10. 11 Arnaud Le Ny (France)
11 Bryan Wyman (USA/Missouri)
11 Erik Hogan (The Netherlands)
In order to obtain a high position in these rankings you need to have included cyclists that are still present in the Tour. In the game, when a cyclist leaves the race, you will keep all the points he earned for you but in these rankings only the remaining cyclists can earn points for you. When we compare the lists with those of 2005, we see that this year the scores in the yellow jersey rankings are lower while those of the green jersey rankings are higher. The battle for the green jersey seems to progress just like the game participants had expected. The yellow jersey battle is completely open and with none of last year's overall top five taking part, it is hard to predict the result. Furthermore a major race favorite, Alejandro Valverde, has already left the race. The percentile rates in the score sheets show what percentage of the other participants received a lower score in the overall rankings or in the stages. For example, when we look at the score sheet of Jan Modaal in 2005, we notice that in the overall rankings, he did better than 83% of the participants while in stage 3 64% of the field obtained a lower score. The percentile rates enable us to create some extra rankings. For example, we can list the participants that have the highest total percentile score:
Top ten total percentile rates
1. 1042 Brigitte Touw (The Netherlands)
2. 1032 Tobias van den Broek (The Netherlands)
3. 1021 Arthur Denneman (The Netherlands)
4. 1012 Kees Schotten (The Netherlands)
5. 1001 Arjen Pijfers (The Netherlands)
6. 993 Dimitri van Agterveld (The Netherlands)
7. 991 Oliver Schneider (Germany)
8. 990 Anton Krijgsman (The Netherlands)
9. 988 Daryl Collingwood (New Zealand)
10. 987 Emanuel Correia (Portugal)
987 Eddy Brouwer (USA)
The basis for this ranking is similar to that of the green jersey rankings in the Tour de France: the more often a team finishes in the top of the stage rankings, the more points it collects. Last year, an impressive number of 736 out of 904 participants (81%) had managed to obtain points in every of the first 15 stages of the race. This year this number is 435 of 647 (67%). This means that in every stage a race favorite (either for the green or the yellow jersey) was among the top ten finishers. Alternatively, we can use the percentile rates for finding the most constant teams in the game: the teams of which the minimal stage percentile rate is high. This produces the following top ten:
Top ten lowest percentile rate 1. 53 Tom Scanlon (USA) 2. 53 Linette Willemsen (The Netherlands) 3. 52 Jerry Nenno (USA) 4. 47 Ronald Simpson (USA) 5. 47 Jim Klepper (USA) 6. 46 Stefano Ferrarini (Australia) 7. 46 Ross Ogilvie (Australia) 8. 45 Daryl Collingwood (New Zealand) 9. 45 Gillis Rowston (USA) 10. 45 Yann Friocourt (France) The ranking of participants with the same minimal percentile rate has been based on their second-worst rate. Three participants managed to beat more than half of of the rest in each and every stage up until now: Tom Scanlon (USA), Linette Willemsen (The Netherlands) and Jerry Nenno (USA). Only one participant is among the top ten in both percentile rankings: Daryl Collingwood of New Zealand.
Successful participantsAfter the stage win of Olle Olausson (Sweden) in the seventh stage of the game, another participant has managed to repeat a stage victory. Dick Blom (The Netherlands) won stage 13 of the 2006 edition of the game after being successful in 1999 (first game stage) and 2001 (final stage). His first two wins involved sprint finishes but the most recent one was achieved in a stage with both sprinters and attackers in the top ten. Only four participants have managed to win stages in three or more editions of the game:
Plc Eds Stg Name (Years)
1. 6 9 Erix Schokker (1995:2,1996:3,1998,1999,2001,2002)
2. 3 9 Erik TKS (1994:5,1995:3,2000)
3. 3 3 Dick Blom (1999,2001,2006)
3 3 Wicher Otten (1999,2001,2002)
5. 2 3 Rien Post (2001:2,2002)
6. 2 2 Wim Penninx (1994,1995)
2 2 Sander Kaspers (1998,2002)
2 2 Olle Olausson (2003,2006)
2 2 Berthold B. Journaille (1998,1999)
Dick Blom is the first to be added to the top three of the list since 2002.
The optimal teamThe second week of the race has provided some mountain stages. However there was only one summit finish and therefore the climbers and the race favorites have not been able to achieve many top positions in the stages. Like on the previous rest day, the optimal team at this stage of the game is dominated by sprinters.
1. R. McEwen | 8x: 1* 1* 5 1* 4 2 6 6 2. T. Boonen | 9x: 2* 4 4 2* 3 9 4 5 8 3. E. Zabel | 8x: 9 5 9 7 6 3* 9 8 4. O. Freire | 7x: 4* 7 3 1 6 1 3 5. D. Bennati | 7x: 5* 3 6 2 5* 8 9 6. B. Eisel | 6x: 8 9 10 4 7 7 7. F. Ventoso | 4x: 7* 8 7* 7* 8. L. Paolini | 5x: 6 6 8* 8* 8* 9. D. Kopp | 4x: 5 4 10 9* 10. T. Hushovd | 5x: 3 7 5 10* 10* 11. C. Moreni | 3x: 5 4 8 12. I. Isasi | 3x: 3 10 6 13. F. Landis | 2x: 2 3 14. M. Boogerd | 2x: 6 7 15. A. Kloden | 2x: 8 9 The team list contains the positions of the cyclists in the team, their names, the number of times they have appeared in the top ten until now and the positions which they have obtained in these top ten positions. An asterix behind the position indicates that the cyclist has obtained bonus points for that result. This team would have obtained 786 points, 95 points more than the current leader Bevo Gallagher. Here is the score sheet of the team:
tot 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1. R. McEwen 129 18 . 18 15 18 . 15 15 . . 15 15 .
2. T. Boonen 132 17 14 14 17 14 . 14 14 . . 14 14 .
3. E. Zabel 107 13 13 . 13 13 . 13 16 13 . 13 . .
4. O. Freire 86 14 12 12 12 12 . . 12 . . 12 . .
5. D. Bennati 81 13 11 11 . 11 . 13 . 11 . 11 . .
6. B. Eisel 60 10 . 10 10 10 . 10 . . . . 10 .
7. F. Ventoso 42 . . 11 9 . . . 11 . . 11 . .
8. L. Paolini 46 8 8 . . 10 . 10 10 . . . . .
9. D. Kopp 30 . . 7 7 . . 7 9 . . . . .
10. T. Hushovd 34 6 . . 6 6 . . 8 . . 8 . .
11. C. Moreni 15 . . . . . . . 5 5 . . . 5
12. I. Isasi 12 . . . 4 4 . . . 4 . . . .
13. F. Landis 6 . . . . . 3 . . . 3 . . .
14. M. Boogerd 4 . . . . . . . . . 2 . . 2
15. A. Kloden 2 . . . . . 1 . . . 1 . . .
Points: 786 99 58 83 93 98 4 82100 33 6 84 39 7
Percentiles: 100 97 99100100 99 14100100100 6100 94 17
The percentile scores show what percentage of the participants in the game would have finished behind this team in the overall rankings or in the stages This super team would have won six stages in the game (stages 4, 5, 8, 9, 10 and 12) and have obtained two second places (stages 3 and 6). These involve stages with sprint finishes as well as stages in which a small or larger group finished before the main group. The maximum attainable score at the second rest day, 786 points, is higher than in any previous edition since 1999 (before 1999 the Tour just had one rest day). In fact the score of the current leader Bevo Gallagher, 691 points, is higher than the second rest day's highest possible score in all previous editions of the game (best: 656 points in 1999). One can only wonder about the final score of the winner of this game. Updated versions of the optimal team will be available after each stage (search for optimal in the participant search page).
Who will win the game?After 15 stages in the race, the number of points that separate the top five in the overall rankings is small (10 points) and the participants involved still have a good chance to win this edition of the game. If the game would progress like in 2004, this would be good news for our current leader Bevo Gallagher (USA): the overall leader at the second rest day in year, Arthur Denneman, managed to win the game. However, 2005 winner Amadeus Bike was ranked only 15th at the second rest day (13 points behind the leader) so the people currently at places 2 to 5 still have a reasonable chance of winning the game. In order to mathematically find out who has a good chance of winning the game, we should take into consideration that the remainder of the Tour (two flat stages, three mountain stages and one individual time trial) is different than the earlier part (nine flat stages, three mountain stages and an individual time trial). We will attempt to predict the final top 20 of the game by assuming that the allocation of points in the next six stages will be the same as in the previous 13 stages. The next table contains the predicted final participant position in the overall rankings, the position after stage 15 (between brackets) and six numeric columns. The first (cur) shows the player's current score, the second (fla), third (mou) and fourth (tim) the points (s)he has obtained in the flat stages, the mountain stages and the individual time trial, the fifth column (exp) contains the number of points the player is expected to obtain in the next six stages and the final column (tot) holds the expected total score. The expected number of points for the next six stages was computed with the formula (2/9)*fla+(3/3)*mou+(1/1)*tim.
cur fla mou tim exp tot 1 (2) 687 628 44 15 199 886 Brigitte Touw (The Netherlands) 2 (1) 691 667 24 0 172 863 Bevo Gallagher (USA) (4) 681 642 33 6 182 863 Arjen Pijfers (The Netherlands) 4 (3) 685 654 28 3 176 861 Dimitri van Agterveld (The Netherlands) 5 (4) 681 655 26 0 172 853 Bastin Verweij (The Netherlands) 6(11) 654 586 57 11 198 852 Arthur Denneman (The Netherlands) 7 (6) 674 644 30 0 173 847 Imrow Reidt (The Netherlands) 8 (7) 669 648 21 0 165 834 Jolanda Prins (The Netherlands) 9(11) 654 617 35 2 174 828 Emanuel Correia (Portugal) 10 (8) 662 640 22 0 164 826 Nathalie Mulder (The Netherlands) 11 (9) 660 641 19 0 161 821 Xiaojun Creemers (The Netherlands) 12(10) 655 630 25 0 165 820 Annie Sikkes (The Netherlands) 13(17) 636 590 39 7 177 813 Eddy Brouwer (USA) (21) 633 583 45 5 180 813 Wil Gommans (The Netherlands) 15(13) 648 626 22 0 161 809 Jenni Collingwood (New Zealand) (22) 631 583 40 8 178 809 Jan Matheeuwsen (The Netherlands) 17(15) 643 620 23 0 161 804 Amaryllis Frieser (The Netherlands) 18(14) 644 623 21 0 159 803 Karolina Tobiasson (Sweden) 19(16) 641 618 23 0 160 801 Marco Alter (The Netherlands) (19) 634 600 32 2 167 801 Erik Dekker (United Arab Emirates) According to the prediction table, next week will only bring minor changes to the overall rankings. Only two participants outside of the current top 20 will be present in the final top 20 (numbers 21 and 22). No new participants will join the current top six. The table predicts that current number two Brigitte Touw (The Netherlands) will win the game with no less than 23 points to spare on the numbers two. In three of the previous five editions the predicted winner at the second rest day turned out to be correct (2004, 2002 and 2001). In the other two years, the actual winner was at a different position in the predicted rankings (second with 9 points difference in 2003 and fifteenth with 17 points difference in 2005). Two more interesting observations can be made about the predicted final result table. First, it seems that Kees Winder's all-time record final score from 1997 of 749 points will be broken with more than 100 points in this edition of the game. Second, successful Dutchmen Arthur Denneman and Dimitri van Agterveld might obtain a place among the top ten in the game yet again. Van Agterveld was fourth in 1999 and tenth in 2002 while Denneman won the 2004 edition of the game after a sixth place in 2001. If their predicted places prove to be correct, they will become the first participants in the history of the game with three overall top ten positions.
Last update: July 17, 2006. erikt@xs4all.nl |