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TdF Rest day: July 18, 2005After two weeks of cycling, the remaining 158 riders in the race received a rest day today. Some tough stages lie ahead of them next week: on Tuesday they will climb to the 1677 m Col d'Aubisque, on Wednesday there will be the longest stage in the race this year: 240 km, and on Saturday offers a long individual time trial.
DropoutsAfter the first fifteen stages, 31 riders have left the race. This is the fourth lowest number in the history of the game. The lowest number of dropouts after 14 stages and a prologue was 26 in 2002, the highest 62 (1996). In the previous ten editions of the Tour, on average 43 riders had left the race after 14 stages. However, this year's number of dropouts is more or less the same as the average number of riders that left the race in the five most recent editions of the game: 35. At this point of the race, only one highly popular rider in the game has left the race: Tom Boonen (member of 765 participant teams). Therefore there still are many teams in the race that are complete: 38, of which the highest ranked is that of Alessio Bernacchi (Italy, currently 55th). 220 of the 904 teams have lost only one rider, among which the robot participant Jan Modaal and 316 teams have lost two riders. The maximum loss is eight riders and two participants share this fate: Bastin Verweij (The Netherlands) and José Aarts from the same country. Four other participants have already lost 7 riders.
Popular cyclistsIn the previous editions of the game, we have compared the performance of the robot participant Jan Modaal, composed from the list of most favorite cyclists in the game, with teams that contained the most popular cyclists of the countries that provided 10 or more participants to the game. This year we have built 13 of such country-specific teams. Each of them contains the most frequently chosen cyclists of the participants of that country. The team lists have been constructed in the same way as that of the robot participant team. This is how the country teams would have been doing after 15 stages:
Plc Per Pnt Name
26. 97% 408 Team Belgium
408 Team Italy
408 Team Sweden
94. 89% 394 Team USA
101. 88% 393 Team Australia
393 Team New Zealand
114. 86% 391 Team France
135. 84% 389 Jan Modaal (United Nations)
158. 81% 386 Team Canada
386 Team The Netherlands
213. 75% 379 Team Germany
379 Team Norway
221. 74% 378 Team UK
325. 63% 365 Team Spain
This list contains the projected place of the team in the overall rankings, the percentage of participants it would have beaten, its score and its name. The country teams perform better than last year. At this stage of the game in 2004 all teams but one managed to beat half of the field and this year all country teams outperform 60% of the field. Three teams manage to outperform 97% of the field (Belgium, Italy and Sweden) while the best team last year (Germany) only outperformed 85% of the game participants at the corresponding stage in the 2004 race. Note that the three best country teams also outperform all participants of the three countries!
Alternative rankingsSince 1999, we have used the rest days to look at several alternative rankings. We examine the current overall rankings for the four main jerseys: yellow (overall time), green (sprinter points), polka dot (mountain points) and white (best young rider). If we interpret the top ten positions of these rankings as a stage result (see CyclingNews.com), we get the following top tens of participants:
Top ten yellow jersey rankings after stage 15
1. 94 Rick Goatman (United Nations)
2. 93 Xavier Ibarreta (Philippines)
3. 91 Erik TKS (The Netherlands)
4. 87 Jacqueline Molanus (The Netherlands)
5. 86 Dan Foss (USA)
86 Steve Kennedy (USA)
7. 85 Andrew Tombs (UK)
85 Kees Tijsen (The Netherlands)
9. 84 Tore Högman (Sweden)
10. 83 Brent J. Bell (USA)
83 Irmgard Brans Brabant (The Netherlands)
Top ten green jersey rankings after stage 15
1. 78 Martin Hoffellner (Austria)
2. 73 Lydia Beerkens (The Netherlands)
3. 64 Anton Cozijnsen (Australia)
4. 63 German H. Uribe (Colombia)
5. 61 Ellen van Overeem (The Netherlands)
61 Reinier van Olderen (The Netherlands)
7. 60 Gerard Post (The Netherlands)
60 Matthias Kersten (Germany)
9. 59 Bret Jaeger (USA)
59 Frank de Bakker (The Netherlands)
59 James Horan (Australia)
59 Keith M. Olivia (USA)
59 Steve Tester (Australia)
Top ten polka dot jersey rankings after stage 15
1. 50 Hildegard Kersten (Germany)
50 Ray Whittingham (UK)
3. 49 Annie Tombs (UK)
49 Jaared Scott (USA)
49 Wouter de Bruijn (The Netherlands)
6. 48 Søren Glente (Denmark)
7. 47 Graeme Camp (New Zealand)
47 Hayden Dusyk (Canada)
47 Lachlan Taylor (Australia)
10. 45 John McKenzie (UK/Scotland)
45 Steve Wagner (USA)
Top ten white jersey rankings after stage 15
1. 24 Joop Hofman (The Netherlands)
2. 21 L. Moore (USA)
3. 18 John Willy (Germany)
18 Martin Littlewood (UK/England)
5. 17 Lizet Penson (The Netherlands)
6. 15 Angelo Colombo (Italy)
15 Hildegard Kersten (Germany)
15 John Wingfield (UK)
9. 14 Gerard Ypenga (The Netherlands)
14 Jed J. Fritsch (USA)
14 Laurens Hitman (The Netherlands)
In order to obtain a high position in these rankings you need to have included cyclists that are still present in the Tour. In the game, when a cyclist leaves the race, you will keep all the points he made for you but in these rankings only the remaining cyclists can earn you points. When we compare the lists with those of 2004, we see that this year the scores in the yellow jersey rankings are higher while those of the green jersey rankings are lower. The battle for the yellow jersey seems to progress just like the game participants had expected with none of the favorites having to leave the race. The race for the green jersey has already seen favorite Tom Boonen leave the race while wearing the jersey. Apart from that, several unexpected riders (non-sprinters) are in the green jersey's top ten (Vinokourov, Rasmussen and Brochard but not Armstrong). The percentile rates in the score sheets show what percentage of the other participants received a lower score in the overall rankings or in the stages. For example, when we look at the score sheet of Jan Modaal in 2004, we notice that in the overall ranking, he did better than 79% of the participants while in stage 2 57% of the field obtained a lower score. The percentile rates enable us to create some extra rankings. For example, we can list the participants that have the highest total percentile scores:
Top ten total percentile rates
1. 864 Phil Hancox (UK)
2. 832 Aly Ugen (Luxembourg)
3. 831 Richard Daniells (UK)
831 Booker C. Bense (USA)
5. 830 M. Balon (USA)
6. 828 Bill Singer (USA)
7. 824 Tatyana Molloy (USA)
8. 820 Randy Brooks (USA)
9. 815 Jeff Perham (USA)
10. 812 Paul Schlösser (The Netherlands)
812 Dennis O'Farrell (Australia)
The basis for this ranking is similar to that of the green jersey rankings in the Tour de France: the more often a team finishes in the top of the stage rankings, the more points it collects. Last year 177 out of 1201 participants had managed to obtain points in every of the first 15 stages of the race. This year this number is an impressive 736 out of 904. This means that is every stage a race favorite (either for the green or the yellow jersey) was among the top ten finishers. In the fourteenth stage of 2004, there was a successful 10-men breakaway with relatively unknown riders which resulted in zero scores for many game participants but something like that did not happen this year. Alternatively, we can use the percentile rates for finding the most constant teams in the game: the teams of which the minimal stage percentile rate is high. This produces the following top ten: Top ten lowest percentile rate 1. 62 Phil Hancox (UK) 2. 47 Jan Modaal (United Nations) 3. 46 Hans Splinter (The Netherlands) 4. 46 R.J. McNeill (Australia) 5. 46 Peter Kay (USA) 6. 44 Dan Kamiya (Japan) 7. 44 Michael Stultz (USA) 8. 44 Paul Schlösser (The Netherlands) 9. 43 Peter R. Avakian (USA) 10. 43 Cycopath Retsu (USA) The ranking of participants with the same minimal percentile rate has been based on their second-worst rate. Interestingly enough, the number one of the percentile total list, Phil Hancox (UK), is also the clear leader in this list. He has beaten 62% or more of the participants in each and every stage of the game until now, a formidable achievement. The robot participant is also doing well in this overview.
Who will win the game?After 15 stages in the race, the number of points that separate the top ten in the overall rankings is small (8 points) and many participants still have a chance to win this edition of the game. If the game progresses like in 2004, this will be good news for our current leader Christopher Yaure (USA): the overall leader at the second rest day last year, Arthur Denneman, managed to win the game. However, he was the first participant in four game editions that managed to hold the overall lead both at the second rest day and after the final stage finished in Paris. In order to find out who has a good chance of winning the game, we should take into consideration that the remainder of the Tour (one mountain stage, one individual time trial and four flat stages) is different than the earlier part (six mountain stages and six flat stages). We will attempt to predict the final top 20 of the game while assuming that the allocation of points in the next six stages will be the same as in the previous 15 stages. A complication is that the individual time trial (stage 1) has not been included in the game. We will assume that the finishing order of the time trial will be the same as in the mountain stages. The next table contains the predicted final participant position in the overall rankings, the position after stage 15 (between brackets) and five numeric columns. The first (cur) shows the player's current score, the second (fla) and third (mou) the points (s)he has obtained in the flat stages and the mountain stages, the fourth column (exp) contains the number of points the player is expected to obtain in the next six stages and the final column (tot) holds the expected total score. The expected number of points for the next six stages was computed with the formula 4/6*fla+(2/6)*mou.
cur fla mou exp tot 1 (7) 419 269 150 229 648 Matthias Kersten (Germany) 2 (3) 423 243 180 222 645 Booker C. Bense (USA) 3 (1) 426 227 199 218 644 Christopher Yaure (USA) 4 (5) 421 246 175 222 643 Dennis O'Farrell (Australia) 5 (7) 419 251 168 223 642 Jeff Perham (USA) 6(13) 416 256 160 224 640 Jim Andrews (Australia) (14) 415 260 155 225 640 Edwin Bauer (Germany) 8 (5) 421 229 192 217 638 Phil Hancox (UK) (9) 418 243 175 220 638 Michael Stultz (USA) (11) 417 245 172 221 638 Mike Crawley (USA) 11 (2) 425 209 216 211 636 Bill Singer (USA) 12(20) 410 264 146 225 635 Peter Rabey (UK/England) 13 (4) 422 210 212 211 633 Ernstjan Kats (The Netherlands) 14 (9) 418 223 195 214 632 M. Balon (USA) 15(15) 413 242 171 218 631 Amadeus Bike (The Netherlands) 16(28) 407 264 143 224 631 Brigitte Touw (The Netherlands) 17(26) 408 259 149 222 630 Laurie Farmery (UK/England) 18(28) 407 252 155 220 627 Andreas Gras (Sweden) 19(32) 405 259 146 221 626 Jens Ritzert (Germany) 20(16) 412 227 185 213 625 Aly Ugen (Luxembourg) (16) 412 226 186 213 625 Dan Kamiya (Japan) Although the current overall top 10 participants also perform well in these predicted rankings (all among the top 14), there is an interesting difference between the two lists: the predicted overall winner: game veteran Matthias Kersten (Germany). This is his ninth participation in the game and he has never won a stage or held the lead in the overall rankings. It would be impressive if he would be able to improve his current seventh position to first. The four previous attempts to predict the winner at the second rest day are promising for Kersten: in 2004, 2002 and 2001 the predicted winner at the second rest day turned out to be correct (in 2003, the later winner was at the predicted place 2). However, like in the current overall rankings, the point differences in predicted rankings are small: 10 points between the top ten. This means that a single rider finishing inside or outside a stage top ten could cause the rankings to change completely. It is almost certain that we will have an exciting competition in the final week of the Tour!
The optimal teamAfter the fifteenth stage, the optimal team of the game includes both sprinters and climbers:
1. M. Rasmussen | 5x: 1* 3 9 8 10 2. L. Armstrong | 4x: 2* 6 2* 7 3. T. Hushovd | 6x: 9 3* 5 9 9 5 4. S. O'Grady | 5x: 3 4* 4* 10 2 5. I. Basso | 3x: 5* 3 6 6. R. Forster | 4x: 6* 10 3 7 7. C. Evans | 3x: 7* 8 7* 8. C. Moreau | 3x: 8* 2 3 9. A. Kloden | 3x: 2 9* 9* 10. A. Vinokourov | 3x: 2 10* 1 11. R. McEwen | 3x: 1 1 1 12. J. Voigt | 3x: 9 5 3 13. J. Ullrich | 3x: 6 4 9 14. M. Backstedt | 3x: 7 2 8 15. T. Boonen | 3x: 1 2 7 The team list contains the positions of the cyclists in the team, their names, the number of times they have appeared in the top ten until now and the positions which they have obtained in these top ten positions. An asterix behind the position indicates that the cyclist has obtained bonus points for that result. This team would have obtained 509 points, 83 points more than the current leader Christopher Yaure (USA). Here is the score sheet of the team:
tot 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1. M. Rasmussen 78 . . . . . 18 15 15 . . 15 15
2. L. Armstrong 62 . . . . . . 17 14 . . 17 14
3. T. Hushovd 81 13 16 13 13 . . . . 13 13 . .
4. S. O'Grady 64 12 14 . . . 14 . . 12 12 . .
5. I. Basso 35 . . . . . . 13 . . . 11 11
6. R. Forster 42 12 10 10 . . . . . . 10 . .
7. C. Evans 31 . . . . 11 . 9 11 . . . .
8. C. Moreau 26 . . . . 10 8 . 8 . . . .
9. A. Kloden 25 . . . . 7 . 9 . . . 9 .
10. A. Vinokourov 20 . . 6 . 8 . . 6 . . . .
11. R. McEwen 15 . 5 . 5 . . . . . 5 . .
12. J. Voigt 12 . 4 . . 4 4 . *
13. J. Ullrich 9 . . . . 3 . . . . . 3 3
14. M. Backstedt 6 2 . . 2 . . . . . 2 . .
15. T. Boonen 3 1 1 . 1 . . . . *
Points: 509 40 50 29 21 43 44 63 54 25 42 55 43
Percentiles: 100 84 52 95 15 99100100 99 82 88 87 93
This strong team would have won two stages in the game: stages 9 and 10.
More...Here are some unusual participant teams that probably will not win the game but still are nice to see:
Last update: July 17, 2006. erikt(at)xs4all.nl |